High Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Midwest and Down The Mississippi Valley

Here is the simulated radar composite reflectivity forecast for 1pm EST, showing a very distinct arc of isolated supercell storms from S Michigan south through E Illinois, with convective initiation along the front as far south as NE Arkansas.

These supercells, especially from southern IL/KY north, will very likely be capable of producing long-track, violent tornadoes as they track through IN, southern MI..., OH, and even southern Ontario.

Farther south, in the Lower Mississippi River Valley, wind fields are forecast to be more unidirectional with height by the time storms develop Sunday afternoon, resulting in a more conditional tornado threat in the southern mode. Still though, any slight weakening or backing of the surface winds in the Lower MS River Valley would create an environment conduce for strong tornadoes as well. Stay tuned to local watches and warnings in the entire slight and moderate risk areas from the southern Great Lakes to AR/TN.