NOAA: More and Stronger Atlantic Hurricanes in 2013

The global hurricane season, which begins late this month and extends until early winter, is a mixed bag in 2013, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) predicting extreme activity in the Atlantic and mild activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific Oceans. 

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms in the Atlantic. Seven to 11 of these may become hurricanes, with three to six may developing into Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conductive winds patterns coming from Africa."

The average for the Atlantic hurricane season from June to November is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific basins is expected to be calmer than usual, with a 70 percent chance of experiencing 11 to 16 named storms, five to eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes.

The Pacific experiences an average of four major hurricanes from May to November. The season’s first named storm, Tropical Storm Alvin, already developed on May 15.

The 2013 forecasts were completed with improved forecast modeling, data gathering, and an updated National Hurricane Center communication protocol, says NOAA, and will be updated again in early August.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator.

In July, NOAA will introduce a new supercomputer to run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that it says more accurately depicts storm structure and storm intensity. The transmission of real-time Doppler data into the HWRF should increase its accuracy by 10-15 percent.

Additionally, the National Weather Service now requires hurricane warnings to remain in effect even when a storm has become post-tropical, such as Hurricane Sandy was when she hit the coastline. 

Rare May Snow in Midwest

An extremely rare Winter Storm is moving out of the Rockies and into the Midwest.

This storm has already dumped up to 15.5 inches of snow near Owatonna, Minn. where I-35 was closed early Thursday due to snow and downed power lines. Up to 14 inches of snow has been measured in Ellsworth, Wis. These snow totals are truly amazing considering we are in early May.
Localized power outages have been reported in portions of southern Minnesota due to downed power lines from the heavy, wet nature of the snow.

Through early Friday, the wet snow or rain changing to snow will focus from the Plains into the Upper Midwest in the cold air behind a sharp cold front and near a closed area of low pressure aloft.

Locations from Kansas and northwest Missouri to eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southeast Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan are most likely to see this, but flakes could also fly as far south as northern and western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Rochester, Minn., Eau Claire,Wis. , Des Moines, Iowa and possibly even Kansas City, Mo. are in the swath that will see accumulating snow. It appears the most significant band of snow will stay just south of the downtown Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area.

The heaviest snow totals of 6 inches or more, with local totals over 1 foot, are expected in a narrow zone from northern Iowa to southeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Kansas City has seen measurable snow in May only once in recorded history, so this would be a rare event. In addition, Rochester, Minn. will likely see its biggest May snowstorm in history by recording more than 2 inches.


Although the May sun angle should be enough to limit impacts on roads during the day, snow accumulation on trees and power lines could produce power outages in locations that see more than 4 inches of snow.


 A swath of the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys may pick up over two inches of total rainfall through this weekend, thanks to the slow-moving storm.

This is obviously not great news for a region still dealing with river flooding.  Rivers are still above flood stage from Indiana southern Wisconsin and Illinois to Arkansas and west Tennessee, including the Mississippi River downstream from Davenport, Ia. to north of Memphis.


Additional locally heavy rainfall may send smaller creeks and streams into flood again, as well as prolong, or delay mainstem river crests.

This is a very complicated forecast scenario. Therefore, exact forecast details are still highly uncertain, so check back with us as we refine this forecast.

Suffice to say, this will be a rather wild weather pattern for early May

Snowfall Totals/Notables So Far

Here are the latest peak snowfall totals by state as of early Thursday morning:

• Buckhorn Mtn., Colo.:  28.2"
• Near Buford, Wyo.:  20"
• Near Harrisburg, Neb.:  6.1"
• Near Edson, Kan.:  4.5"
• Ringsted, Iowa:  6.5"
• Near Owatonna, Minn.:  15.5"
• Beresford, S.D.:  6"
• Ellsworth, Wisc.:  14"

Some other notable totals include:

• Ft. Collins, Colo.:  10-16"
• Near Boulder, Colo.:  8"
• Denver, Colo.:  3.2"
• Cheyenne, Wyo.:  12.8"
• Omaha, Neb.:  3.1"
• Sioux Falls, S.D.:  1.5"

Interstate 80 between Cheyenne and Laramie, Wyo., as well as Interstate 70 westbound near Georgetown, Colo. were closed due to accidents and/or heavy snow on May 1.

The weight of heavy snow downed tree limbs, triggering power outages in parts of northeast Colorado Front Range. Power outages and downed power lines were also reported in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin early on May 2.

This was the first one-inch-plus May snowfall anywhere in the state of Iowa since 1967 and the first such May snow in Sioux Falls, S.D. since 1944.

This May snowstorm is setting records in snow Omaha (3.1") and Rochester, Minn. (7" as of this writing).

A tentative May one-day snowfall record for the state of Minnesota may have been set near Owatonna, Minn. (15.5").  These records will need to be officially certified by climatologists and meteorologists.

Another significant late season winter storm possible / Record Lows Set

... Another significant late season winter storm possible...

A low pressure system developing in the mid Mississippi River valley
on Monday is forecast to move northeast along a stationary front
stretching across the west central Great Lakes Monday night and
Tuesday. Depending on the track of this low... a band of moderate to
heavy wet snow is likely to fall over at least portions of the west
half of Upper Michigan Monday night and Tuesday morning. Locations
over western Upper Michigan from Ironwood to Rockland... Houghton and
Mohawk have the best chance of picking up 6 to 9 inches of wet snow
during this time. Areas to the east of a line from Marquette to
Crystal Falls are likely to see mainly rain during this event.

Although details are far from certain concerning this late season
winter storm... there is an increasing potential that travel
disruptions will occur over the west half of Upper Michigan Monday
night and Tuesday morning.

Record Low Temperatures

Record low temperature set yesterday...

The low temperature yesterday at the Marquette National Weather
Service office was 10 degrees. This breaks the old record of 13
degrees set on April 22nd 1983.

Weather records for the Marquette National Weather Service office
located in Negaunee township date back to 1961.


... Record minimum temperature set at Alpena mi...

a record minimum temperature of 17 degrees Fahrenheit was set at
the Alpena County Regional Airport in Alpena mi this morning... April
21st 2013. This broke the old record of 19 set in 1981.


Record low temperature set at Flint mi ...

a record low temperature of 23 degrees was set at Flint mi today.
This breaks the old record of 25 set in 1981.

Extremely Late Winter Storm Sets All Records Across The Country

An incredible temperature contrast across
 the state of Texas on April 9, 2013.

While snowstorms in April are not uncommon the latest winter storm that hit the week of April 7th, 2013  certainly produced its share of odd weather.

The driving distance from Dalhart, Texas, in the northern Texas Panhandle, to Laredo along the Rio Grande River, is roughly 750 miles, or just over 11 hours.

That said, an incredible temperature contrast set up on April 9.

Just before midnight, Dalhart bottomed out at 22 degrees behind a plunging cold front.   For perspective, the all-time April record low, there, is 17 degrees.

In Laredo, the daytime high was 108 degrees.  Last year, Laredo didn't warm to 108 degrees or warmer until June 10.

That makes an 86 degree temperature contrast across the state of Texas on April 9.

The epicenter for the heaviest snowfall from Winter Storm Walda was in the Black Hills of South Dakota.  Not unusual for an April storm.

In this case, it was the snowfall rate that was very impressive.

At the Rapid City, S.D. airport, 20 inches of snow fell on April 9.  That set a new calendar-day snowfall record for that location, topping April 18, 1970 (15.6").  Records at the airport only date to 1942, however.

The final snowstorm total at the airport site was 28.2 inches, which also blew away the record heaviest snowstorm at that site (previously 18" on Apr. 22, 2001).

A much longer period of record is in place for Downtown Rapid City.  There, the storm total of 22.4 inches was the second heaviest snowstorm on record, there, topped only by a 32.1 inch snowstorm from April 12-15, 1927.

If you melt down the snow, the 1.21 inches of "liquid equivalent" precipitation on April 9 was the single "wettest" calendar day in Rapid City since May 19, 2011.  Certainly desperately needed for drought relief.

Due to the heavy snow in the west, and ice to the east, a roughly 350-mile stretch of Interstate 90 was shut down from Rapid City to Sioux Falls.

The ice storm photo at right is not unusual, for, say, January or February.

A more "typical" April storm might have a sliver of heavy, wet snow on the northwest or western periphery of the storm's precipitation shield.  So, precipitation types are most often either rain or wet snow.

The above right photo was taken in Sioux Falls, S.D., where significant icing downed tree limbs on April 9.  That would be unusual enough.

Then, on April 10, freezing rain broke out from northwest Texas into Oklahoma and points north.  One quarter inch of ice in trees was observed in Weatherford and Enid, Okla.

Light icing was even reported by KFDX in Wichita Falls, Texas early on April 10.

According to Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service

 Forecast Office in Norman, Oklahoma, the April 10, 2013 freezing rain event in Oklahoma City was the second latest freezing rain/freezing drizzle event in the spring in records dating to 1930.  The only later event, there, was Apr. 17-18, 1953.

In this case, the polar cold front was so strong, and the upper-level trough remained anchored over the southern Rockies, such that precipitation that would more typically be rain, was occurring behind the front as freezing rain.

 

 

 

 

We're all used to severe thunderstorms on days with warm and humid air in place.
It's not unusual for severe thunderstorms with large hail north of a warm front, as elevated instability can support the growth of large hailstones even if the surface air is "relatively cool".
What we saw with this storm, however, was amazing.

• Grand Island, Neb. and Hays, Kan. reported hail up to nickel-size with surface temperatures around 28 degrees.
• There were several reports of tornadoes near Akron, Colo. the evening of April 8.  Following a peak wind gust to 79 mph, surface temperatures crashed through the 40s into the 30s on the eastern Plains of Colorado that evening.
• One location in central Nebraska reported hail with a surface temperature of 18 degrees!

At those temperatures, you would expect to shovel snow, not hail!

The Wyoming state capital of  Cheyenne had a high temperature of only 12 degrees on Tuesday during the early morning hours. This is the third lowest April high temperature in Cheyenne weather records dating back to 1871. Late on Tuesday night, the low temperature dipped to a daily record low for April 9th of 6 degrees.

Cheyenne set a third temperature record early Wednesday morning with a daily record low for April 10 of 5 degrees. On top of these three temperature records, Cheyenne also picked up 9 inches of snow and had wind gusts up to 42 mph.

Temperatures fell below zero in the southeast Wyoming town of  Laramie right before midnight on Tuesday.
By early Wednesday morning, Laramie had bottomed out at 5 degrees below zero, setting a new daily record low for April 10. This also ties as the seventh coldest April low temperature in  Laramie weather records dating back to 1948.

A bit farther south, the Mile-High City illustrated its reputation for big temperature swings.

Denver is known for its wild temperature.

After a high of 71 degrees on Monday at 2 p.m. EDT, the temperature had fallen to 22 degrees by midnight Tuesday. That 22-degree temperature reading at midnight ended up being the high temperature for Tuesday, which ties as the sixth coldest April high temperature on record. The low on Tuesday fell all the way to 9 degrees late in the evening, which set a new daily record low for April 9.

The Mile-High City set yet another temperature record on Wednesday morning with a daily record low of 6 degrees for April 10. In addition, this 6 degree temperature reading ties as the fourth coldest April low temperature in Denver weather records dating back to 1872.

Very large hail in the Plains is not uncommon during the spring. What is unusual in this case is that Omaha, Nebraska,saw very large hailstones up to two inches in diameter with temperatures in the middle 30s on Tuesday evening! Not the kind of temperatures you would expect to see with hail this large.

The hail caused damage to roofs, cars and windshields according to this article from the Omaha World-Herald.

Ahead of the cold front associated with this storm., Abilene, Texas  saw temperatures rise all the way to 93 degrees around 4 p.m. CDT Tuesday. Just eight hours later near midnight, the temperature had plummeted to 37 degrees. By Wednesday morning, Abilne was reporting freezing rain and thunder.

Late Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service in San Angelo, Texas, mentioned reports of light sleet and freezing rain accumulations on elevated or grassy surfaces, "but the roads seem to be in pretty good order thanks to yesterday's 90s."

We've touched on the cold in a couple of other Wyoming cities earlier.

In Casper, Wyo., April 9, 2013, the "high" temperature topped out at a mere 13 degrees.  This set a new record coldest daily high temperature for April, dating to 1939.  The old record coldest April high, there, was 16 degrees on April 11, 1997 and April 2, 1945.

During the winter of 2012-2013, only three January days in Casper had high temperatures colder than April 9.  In fact, no February 2013 day in Casper featured a colder high temperature than what was observed on April 9.

Still not impressed?  Casper's high temperature matched that of Fairbanks, Alaska on April 9.  And Fairbanks was in a cold snap itself!  Their high of 13 degrees was three degrees colder than their average low for the day!



A LATE-SEASON OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE U.S.

A LATE-SEASON OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE MOISTURE FROM A LARGE PACIFIC STORM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY... A LATE-SEASON OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEGINNING TO INVADE THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS EASTER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT...AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA CAN EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE EASTERN U.S...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STEADILY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRIGGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND. OUT WEST...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BUT WEAKENING OCEAN STORM HAS MOVED INTO A GOOD PORTION OF CALIFORNIA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN CARRY THE MOISTURE EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RE-INVIGORATE THE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.