Rare 3 November Tornadoes Touchdown In Thumb Of Michigan

The National Weather Service has confirmed that two tornadoes touched down in Mid-Michigan during a line of storms that rolled through Friday morning. A third tornado has also been reported in

the state.

The Mid-Michigan twisters hit in Bad Axe in Huron County and in Applegate in Sanilac County.

The Bad Axe tornado was rated an EF-0 with estimated peak winds of 85 mph. A damage survey found that the funnel touched down 1 mile west of Bad Axe just south of M-53 at Barrie Road. It hit the ground at 6:46 a.m. and stayed on the ground for only .6 miles, lifting one minute later near M-53 and Western Avenue, .4 miles west of Bad Axe. There were no injuries as a result of the storm.

The Applegate tornado was rated an EF-1 with estimated peak winds at 90 mph. Experts found the funnel touched down at 7:13 a.m., 6.5 miles west-southwest of Applegate, .5 miles east of the intersection of Marlette and Loeding Roads. The storm was on the ground for 3.6 miles, and was 150 yards wide. It dissipated at 7:17 a.m. about 2.9 miles west-southwest of Applegate in a field just northeast of the intersection of Marlette and Tubbs roads. There are no reports of any injuries at this time.

The National Weather Service also confirms that a third tornado touched down in St. Clair County, near Yale. Experts say the EF-0 twister packed winds peaking at 85 miles per hour. It touched down at 7:20 a.m., 5.3 miles east-northeast of Yale near the intersection of Kilgore and Jeddo Roads. It traveled .8 miles before lifting just east of the intersection of Jeddo and Duce Roads at 7:21 a.m. There are no reported injuries.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES

TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH

EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH

EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH

EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH

EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH

EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

The tornadoes were brought on by a cold air mass slamming into a very unusually warm air mass across Michigan,.  Michigan spent the last 4 days with high temps feeling more like Summer than November with record temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

El Nino and Michigan: Winter outlook looks warm

A background first.

An El Nino is warmer-than-normal sea water in the Pacific.

La Nina is cooler than normal Pacific sea surface water.

In an El Nino the warmer waters flow towards the east, in other words towards the United States west coast.

The opposite happens in an La Nina.

IT IS NOT A STORM. This misconception seems to have been made recently so lets clear that up now.

It is simply a variable of the earth's climate, not some gigantic demon (or Godzilla as some national media outlets have described it) coming to ravage the country.

It's warm water, pure and simple, but it DOES have an effect on the country and on us here in Michigan.

Why? Simple, Jet stream.

The Jet moves around north and south and fluctuates from season to season.

It can also fluctuate day to day and these fluctuations are what help systems track our way and help to fuel us with moist, warm, or cold air.

The warmer waters in the Pacific change the way the Jet behaves and increase its temperature which then moves over the Jet like a conveyor belt.

It can change some seasonal things so lets dive right in and see what could happen.

EL NINO'S EFFECT:

In strong El Nino years the weather is characterized by increased moisture in some areas and warmer than normal temperatures.

It is no secret that the weather and atmospheric circulations depend a lot on the ocean temperatures and circulations.

So if you take a system moving over warm Pacific waters, it is pretty certain it will be on the warmer side of things.

Plus, warm moist air rises so now you add a lot of moisture to the air that has to come down somewhere.

That somewhere first is California.

I expect there to be a lot of rain coming to the west coast and that is both very good, and terribly bad.

A lot of rain at once can cause massive mud slides which has happened in a past El Nino year I will talk about in a second.

BUT, it will do a lot to replenish their reservoirs and add water to the mountains there in the form of snow.

They need water, badly, so our best hope is the added moisture comes in a gentle wave instead of a deluge all at once.

FOR MICHIGAN: A strong El Nino year means warmer winter on average and more just plain wet conditions and less snow.

So depending on who you are you'll either be far more excited for less shoveling and extra heat, or be the other end of the spectrum and wish you could be sledding.

PAST STRONG YEARS-EXAMPLES COMPARED TO CURRENT STRENGTH AND TREND:

There are 2 big years to focus on as potential benchmarks: winter 1982-83 and winter 1997-98.

Our average snowfall for a winter season is around the 44 to 45 inch mark, give or take a couple tenths of an inch of snow.

In 1982-83 we got only 26.5" of snow, and in 97-98 we got only 28.3" of snow.

PLUS, in 1982 we were in the 60's for Christmas!

In 1997-98 we had one of the warmest January's on record here with Detroit seeing days in the 60's.

HOWEVER, winter and seasonal outlooks in general are awfully difficult to come up with accurately. Look at last winter where the original outlook was for a warmer than average winter and we froze.......again.

But El Nino gives a huge confidence boost as meteorologists because the actual, tangible data is there. You can see it, feel it, measure it.

We base the measure for the winter off of a guess the trend will continue but it sure doesn't look like it's stopping.

Before anyone says to me months from now while standing in half a foot of snow "You said it was going to be warm!" you have to remember, it is still winter.

Michigan will still see snow, and the season total may be made of 1 or 2 larger storms and a couple small bursts.

But the overall season would be much warmer with more warm days, less overall snow, and a lot of sunshine.

Florida Freeze

Record Cold Across Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. Great Lakes Could Set Ice Record

As much of the eastern U.S. freezes in a bitter February cold snap, so too do the Great Lakes, which are now more than 85 percent covered in ice. With outlooks pointing to continued cold through the month, the potential grows for the Great Lakes to see one of the iciest years on record.

With a total ice cover of 85.4 percent, the lakes have now surpassed where they were at this time last year. After a brutally cold winter across the eastern U.S. in 2014, the Great Lakes went on to set the second-highest ice cover on record — 91 percent — since monitoring began in the 1970s. Ice lingered in Lake Superior through Memorial Day last year — and it was even more surprising that it was still there as record highs were being broken in the Midwest. The record-highest ice extent occurred Feb. 19, 1979, when 94.7 percent of the network was covered in ice.

With 82.6 percent coverage, Lake Ontario seems primed to meet or exceed its record ice extent: 85.7 percent, set in 1979. Lake Erie is a popsicle with more than 98 percent of the lake covered in ice. As the shallowest lake in the network, it has reached full ice coverage three times on record, in 1978, 1979 and 1996. Erie’s ice cover sky-rocketed in January, climbing from ice-free to 88 percent coverage in just a couple of weeks.

While it’s difficult to know for sure whether the Great Lakes will reach record ice cover this year, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility given the outlook for below-normal temperatures in the next few weeks.

On Wednesday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center was forecasting a high chance of below-average temperatures toward the end of the month across a huge portion of the eastern United States. The center is also suggesting that the chill could last through March over the Great Lakes and Northeast, injecting more confidence into the forecast for record-setting Great Lakes ice.