It could be one for the ages for those lucky enough to enjoy
clear skies. On Friday night into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, Earth will
take on a barrage of meteors, dubbed the ‘May Camelopardalids.’
They’re caused by dust from periodic comet 209P/LINEAR, and
no one alive has seen this show before. The last time it came around was in the
1800s.
There’s definitely an increasing giddiness amongst
skywatchers, knowing that this is something no one else walking around the
Earth has been able to take in before! Perhaps a particularly long-lived giant
tortoise took in the show, but that’s about it.
So how many will be bombarding our atmosphere? Some
forecasters are calling for up to 200 meteors per hour! To put that in
perspective, here’s a list of all the larger meteor showers we see on Earth
each year, from the American Meteor Society.
For us, the Perseids are usually the show-stoppers. That’s
due to both the rate and the conditions – it’s a lot nicer to stand outside in
August than in January! But they’re also more dependable than the Quadrantids
in terms of higher numbers.
Four different rates are given for each shower, under the
following conditions:
1.city sky or rural sky with full moon,
2.suburb sky or rural sky with quarter moon,
3.rural sky and moonless,
4.calculated Zenith hourly Rate, ZHR.
Date Shower 1 2 3 4
Jan 3-4 Quadrantids 5 10 25 120
Apr 21-22 April Lyrids 3 5 10 18
May 4-5 Eta Aquarids 3 5 10 60
Jul 28-29 Delta Aquarids 3 5 10 20
Aug 12-13 Perseids 10 20 50 100
Oct 21-22 Orionids 5 10 15 23
Nov 3-13 Taurids 1 2 3 5
Nov 16-17 Leonids 3 5 10 20
Dec 13-14 Geminids 20 50 75 120
Dec 21-22 Ursids 1 2 5 10
Viewing Time & Expectations:
Most estimates have the peak viewing time between 2am and
4am Eastern Daylight Time, Friday night into Saturday. And lucky us – North
American viewers are favored for this shower. How did we just find out about
the event? Well you can thank our friends at MIT, along with the Institute of
Technology Lincoln Laboratory and the US Air Force. They are involved in a
collaboration, the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research project, which is
tasked with looking for rocks out there in the universe that may end life on
Earth. Lo and behold, they came across Comet 209P/LINEAR in February of 2004.
The astronomers calculated Comet 209P/LINEAR’s orbit and found that it returns
about every five years in an orbit between the sun and Jupiter. They’ve managed
to trace it back to 1703. There *IS* a catch though – no one really knows how
much debris, for lack of a better term, is actually out there. In other words –
how much did the comet leave behind for us to plow through?
“The general consensus is that this week’s Camelopardalids
will be comparable to a very good Perseid meteor shower with an added
possibility of a storm,” says Geoff Chester, astronomer at the U.S. Naval
Observatory. “I’m planning to be out watching.”
All you really have to do is grab some coffee and look up to
take in the scene, but more specifically, look north – close to Polaris, the
North Star. The meteors will appear to emanate from the constellation
Camelopardalis, the giraffe.
Could it be a dud? You bet. Remember the huge excitement
over Comet ISON last year? While it was great to look at through a telescope,
it never lived up to the high expectations regarding brightness to the naked
eye. There’s some inherent uncertainty when it comes to forecasting a planet,
moving 67,000 miles per hour around the sun, connecting with the path of a
comet that we’ve never traveled through before (so far as we know). I’m sure
you understand :-)
Who else takes a hit? The moon! In fact, if you really want
to have yourself a night, the impact of comet debris vs. the moon could lead to
visible explosions on its surface, seen through backyard telescopes. Yep.
That’s about as geeky/awesome as anything I can imagine.
What if there are barely any meteors?
Consolation prize! You could still take in a very beautiful sight. The crescent
Moon and Venus are converging for a tight conjunction Sunday morning, May 25th.
You can look up and find them rising together just ahead of the sun in the
eastern sky at dawn