NOAA: More and Stronger Atlantic Hurricanes in 2013

The global hurricane season, which begins late this month and extends until early winter, is a mixed bag in 2013, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) predicting extreme activity in the Atlantic and mild activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific Oceans. 

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms in the Atlantic. Seven to 11 of these may become hurricanes, with three to six may developing into Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conductive winds patterns coming from Africa."

The average for the Atlantic hurricane season from June to November is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific basins is expected to be calmer than usual, with a 70 percent chance of experiencing 11 to 16 named storms, five to eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes.

The Pacific experiences an average of four major hurricanes from May to November. The season’s first named storm, Tropical Storm Alvin, already developed on May 15.

The 2013 forecasts were completed with improved forecast modeling, data gathering, and an updated National Hurricane Center communication protocol, says NOAA, and will be updated again in early August.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator.

In July, NOAA will introduce a new supercomputer to run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that it says more accurately depicts storm structure and storm intensity. The transmission of real-time Doppler data into the HWRF should increase its accuracy by 10-15 percent.

Additionally, the National Weather Service now requires hurricane warnings to remain in effect even when a storm has become post-tropical, such as Hurricane Sandy was when she hit the coastline. 

Rare May Snow in Midwest

An extremely rare Winter Storm is moving out of the Rockies and into the Midwest.

This storm has already dumped up to 15.5 inches of snow near Owatonna, Minn. where I-35 was closed early Thursday due to snow and downed power lines. Up to 14 inches of snow has been measured in Ellsworth, Wis. These snow totals are truly amazing considering we are in early May.
Localized power outages have been reported in portions of southern Minnesota due to downed power lines from the heavy, wet nature of the snow.

Through early Friday, the wet snow or rain changing to snow will focus from the Plains into the Upper Midwest in the cold air behind a sharp cold front and near a closed area of low pressure aloft.

Locations from Kansas and northwest Missouri to eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southeast Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan are most likely to see this, but flakes could also fly as far south as northern and western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Rochester, Minn., Eau Claire,Wis. , Des Moines, Iowa and possibly even Kansas City, Mo. are in the swath that will see accumulating snow. It appears the most significant band of snow will stay just south of the downtown Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area.

The heaviest snow totals of 6 inches or more, with local totals over 1 foot, are expected in a narrow zone from northern Iowa to southeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Kansas City has seen measurable snow in May only once in recorded history, so this would be a rare event. In addition, Rochester, Minn. will likely see its biggest May snowstorm in history by recording more than 2 inches.


Although the May sun angle should be enough to limit impacts on roads during the day, snow accumulation on trees and power lines could produce power outages in locations that see more than 4 inches of snow.


 A swath of the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys may pick up over two inches of total rainfall through this weekend, thanks to the slow-moving storm.

This is obviously not great news for a region still dealing with river flooding.  Rivers are still above flood stage from Indiana southern Wisconsin and Illinois to Arkansas and west Tennessee, including the Mississippi River downstream from Davenport, Ia. to north of Memphis.


Additional locally heavy rainfall may send smaller creeks and streams into flood again, as well as prolong, or delay mainstem river crests.

This is a very complicated forecast scenario. Therefore, exact forecast details are still highly uncertain, so check back with us as we refine this forecast.

Suffice to say, this will be a rather wild weather pattern for early May

Snowfall Totals/Notables So Far

Here are the latest peak snowfall totals by state as of early Thursday morning:

• Buckhorn Mtn., Colo.:  28.2"
• Near Buford, Wyo.:  20"
• Near Harrisburg, Neb.:  6.1"
• Near Edson, Kan.:  4.5"
• Ringsted, Iowa:  6.5"
• Near Owatonna, Minn.:  15.5"
• Beresford, S.D.:  6"
• Ellsworth, Wisc.:  14"

Some other notable totals include:

• Ft. Collins, Colo.:  10-16"
• Near Boulder, Colo.:  8"
• Denver, Colo.:  3.2"
• Cheyenne, Wyo.:  12.8"
• Omaha, Neb.:  3.1"
• Sioux Falls, S.D.:  1.5"

Interstate 80 between Cheyenne and Laramie, Wyo., as well as Interstate 70 westbound near Georgetown, Colo. were closed due to accidents and/or heavy snow on May 1.

The weight of heavy snow downed tree limbs, triggering power outages in parts of northeast Colorado Front Range. Power outages and downed power lines were also reported in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin early on May 2.

This was the first one-inch-plus May snowfall anywhere in the state of Iowa since 1967 and the first such May snow in Sioux Falls, S.D. since 1944.

This May snowstorm is setting records in snow Omaha (3.1") and Rochester, Minn. (7" as of this writing).

A tentative May one-day snowfall record for the state of Minnesota may have been set near Owatonna, Minn. (15.5").  These records will need to be officially certified by climatologists and meteorologists.